Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 2.163542 2.594477 3.078094 3.659430 4.337556 5.101825 6.026574
2025-12-14 1.520444 2.057856 2.726836 3.614195 4.752843 6.156657 8.009077
2025-12-21 1.143669 1.713413 2.486252 3.596746 5.134115 7.167196 10.034725
2025-12-28 0.961275 1.568308 2.452579 3.808969 5.804869 8.594982 12.740404
2026-01-04 0.802395 1.414392 2.364880 3.909754 6.307538 9.824019 15.286083
2026-01-11 0.695644 1.314599 2.332403 4.073236 6.903526 11.229153 18.207647
2026-01-18 0.583463 1.179867 2.216160 4.076985 7.237826 12.258595 20.648291
2026-01-25 0.472858 1.023181 2.033095 3.935147 7.306282 12.863341 22.465772
2026-02-01 0.384474 0.888678 1.864111 3.786944 7.334795 13.390191 24.185660
2026-02-08 0.329254 0.808441 1.781001 3.778436 7.598437 14.321932 26.641733
2026-02-15 0.285112 0.742008 1.712812 3.785620 7.885490 15.311464 29.268731
2026-02-22 0.243706 0.672438 1.625982 3.741610 8.066553 16.121887 31.639114
2026-03-01 0.196894 0.580131 1.476964 3.552838 7.952477 16.399097 33.108058
2026-03-08 0.168623 0.527470 1.406740 3.520644 8.146842 17.269058 35.739807
2026-03-15 0.145860 0.483710 1.349222 3.507218 8.376379 18.223756 38.605116
2026-03-22 0.137927 0.479606 1.386889 3.715869 9.099853 20.208211 43.599501
2026-03-29 0.125333 0.458719 1.378723 3.814806 9.592976 21.768431 47.875276
2026-04-05 0.116729 0.447979 1.395032 3.974841 10.238351 23.690053 53.007324
2026-04-12 0.102942 0.416942 1.351266 3.978544 10.525221 24.884731 56.748594
2026-04-19 0.086222 0.371116 1.257587 3.839802 10.461258 25.324700 58.961238
2026-04-26 0.071927 0.329310 1.167052 3.694837 10.363610 25.678723 61.012499
2026-05-03 0.063404 0.306393 1.128758 3.686516 10.600326 26.789209 64.754060
2026-05-10 0.056325 0.286941 1.097559 3.693543 10.875965 28.007878 68.812819